Research Project Proposals
Management & Security

Theme 1: The social dimension of the landscape: rural and environmental archaeology and history for the sustainable development and the mitigation of the environmental risk

References:  Anna Maria Stagno (DAFIST, UniGE) anna.stagno@unige.it 

Funding:  cofunded by MUR/Department (DAFIST), the annual gross amount of the grant, including social security expenses to be paid by the recipient, is € 17,500.

Abstract: With case studies carried out through a micro-analytical historical and regressive approach, the PhD research projects will focus on methodologies to consolidate an historical-environmental approach to the study of uplands and rural areas. Research projects should present possible case studies, addressing the study of agro-sylvo-pastoral practices and systems in relation to population dynamics and the organisation of settlement patterns, considering also the process of abandonment in its historical dimension and the close relationships between social, environmental and economical processes, and need to consider these interrelations to build a sustainable development of rural and mountain areas. The research activity has to consider at least (but not exclusively) one of the following themes: the changes in practices and management of environmental resource and how it is possible to learn sustainability from the pasts; the historical trajectories of commons and collectives domains and the intimate social dimension of the landscape; the relationship between the changes in environmental resources management practices and the organisation of local collectivities; the analytical characterization, also considering cycles and seasonality, of environmental resources management practices, their historical transformations (including abandonment) and environmental effects. Addressed historical sources could both field sources (archaeology, environmental archaeology, oral history, vegetal and animal populations, etc.) both documentary sources (historical archives, historical cartography, etc.

Research will be carried out in the framework and in collaboration with the current research project of the Laboratory of Environmental Archaeology and History of the University of Genova. Research will also contribute to the preparation of policy briefings in close collaboration with local and central institutions (such as Municipalities, Città Metropolitana di Genova,  Regione Liguria, Dipartimento Agricoltura, Turismo, Formazione e Lavoro).

Link to the group or personal webpage

http://www.lasa.unige.it/gruppo.php ; https://dafist.unige.it/node/252 ; https://iris-jpi.eu/ ; https://antigone-erc.eu/ 

References

Theme 2 : Risk  communication  in the climate  change mitigation strategies

Reference:  Luca Ferraris (DIBRIS), Fabrizio Bracco (DISFOR), Marina Mantini (CIMA), Marina Morando (CIMA), Antonio Gioia (CIMA), Nicola Rebora (CIMA)

Funding: D.M. 629 dated 24.4.2024 (Pubblica Amministrazione) Fondazione CIMA

Abstract: There is a growing demand for multidisciplinary research related to natural hazards, which requires broadening  the  scope  of investigation  to  include social  and  human sciences. Specifically, during the preparedness phase in the risk management cycle, there is a strong need  to  improve  current  governance  through communication, involving actions to  raise awareness  and engage communities and key stakeholders in the system. Effective alerting heavily  depends  on  understanding risk,  knowledge  of  behaviors,  and  actions  to  take  in response to the information conveyed in alert messages.  In this sense, risk communication is  a  key  element  in  enhancing  disaster  resilience  by  increasing  public  awareness  of protection and risk anticipation.

CIMA Research Foundation has been conducting research activities on this topic for years. The risk communication lifecycle, seen as a process rather than a product, mirrors the phases of a disaster and is crucial before, during, and after the event. During the prevention phase, also known  as  ordinary or "peace"  time, attention should focus  on awareness,  preparation, and  engaging  the  population.  Additionally,  the  evaluation  of  informational  campaigns, which    includes   reviewing    preparedness,   participation,   planning   coordination,   and responsibility  distribution,  should  not  be  overlooked  among  the  "lessons  learned."  To reinforce the "people-centered" approach, risk communication should leverage the concept of individual  empowerment  rather  than  solely  relying  on  delegating  responsibility  to competent authorities.   However, risk information is inherently uncertain. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate how the  use  of  probabilistic,  albeit  scientific,  information  to  communicate  the  uncertainty associated with each  alert situation relates  to individuals' perceptions and the subsequent adoption of precautionary measures and self-preparedness.  We  propose  two  main  challenges  for  Risk   Communication  research:  1.   Analysis  and evaluation  of  risk  perception  and  communication  to  integrate  them  into  inclusive  and effective governance (overview of general strategies, good practices). 2. Systematization and definition  of  communication  standards  for  risk  awareness  and  communication  policies implemented at various levels (from local to international).

Link to the group or personal webpages

References

Theme 3: The conflict over the management of water resources, as a socio-legal impact of climate change: possible governance and policy solutions

References: Avv. Marco Altamura (CIMA) marco.altamura@cimafoundation.org, Dr. Francesca Munerol (CIMA) francesca.munerol@cimafoundation.org

Funding: D.M. 630 dated 24.4.2024 (cofounded by Fondazione CIMA)

Abstract: In 2018, the Nobel Prize for Economics went to William Nordhaus, for his studies on the relationship between economic growth and climate change: it was highlighted how environmental issues are fundamental variables for economists (https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2018/nordhaus/facts/). Furthermore, the latest report from the Institute for Public Policy Research (“This is a crisis, facing up the age of environmental breakdown”) illustrates how the negative consequences of climate change also have significant impact on the local and global social and legal system; extreme atmospheric phenomena, in particular, undermine the stability of social and legal systems, forcing actors to find different governance and policy solutions (https://www.ippr.org/articles/age-of-environmental-breakdown).

Climate change also determines the worsening of critical issues in terms of social justice, which forcefully emerged in the so-called “climate conflicts”, increasingly the subject of trials and sentences by European and international Courts (https://www.icrc.org/en/what-we-do/climate-change-conflict); lastly, the European Court of Human Rights issued a historic ruling against Switzerland, which hesitates with the call to states to "better protect" the population from the consequences of climate change (https://amp24.ilsole24ore.com/pagina/AFRL7NRD  and https://www.echr.coe.int/w/grand-chamber-rulings-in-the-climate-change-cases). And this is because the poorest half of the world's population contributes only 10% of emissions and, then, within advanced economic countries, the richest 10% of the population contributes more than 50% of greenhouse gas emissions; this determines profound social crises and the request to elevate fair water supply - the same legal level as the protection of human life - among the fundamental goods. This socio-legal transition determines and will determine significant changes to the jurisdiction and, above all, to the legal systems in the near future, which we intend to prevent, study and help manage.

The methodology for analyzing the social and legal impacts of climate change will be as follows: (I) study of judicial and extrajudicial litigation, which represents the litmus test of how socio-legal systems are addressing the problem of extreme climatic events; (II) use of forensic investigation to investigate the impacts of climate change on the social and legal system; (III) understanding of the value of scientific contribution in the transition towards new, more participatory, equitable and sustainable models of governance and policy.

Link to the group or personal page: https://www.cimafoundation.org/ambito/pianificazione-e-procedure/ 

References:

In recent years, as a legal group of the CIMA Foundation, we have published study articles on contingent and urgent ordinances - considered precursors of conflicts over the management of water resources - and on the conflicts that have already arisen between different economic sectors and related stakeholders, sometimes culminating in trials at the Water Courts, which have forced territories and institutions to rethink management solutions for limited water resources, also with a view to extended participation in water governance.

Below are some detailed references:

Theme 4: Implications of disappearing glaciers for downstream water supply

Reference: Dr. Francesco Avanzi (CIMA) francesco.avanzi@cimafoundation.org, Dr. Umberto Morra di Cella (CIMA, ARPA VdA) umberto.morradicella@cimafoundation.org, Dr. Edoardo Cremonese (CIMA) umberto.cremonese@cimafoundation.org, Dr. Simone Gabellani (CIMA) simone.gabellanio@cimafoundation.org 

Funding: D.M. 630 dated 24.4.2024 (cofounded by Fondazione CIMA)

Abstract: Glaciers represent a key water resource for Alpine regions, particularly as they buffer multi-year winter precipitation into summer melt (Huss 2011). Thanks to this buffering role, glaciers have the potential to mitigate summer droughts by providing much needed freshet during periods of declining precipitation (Van Tiel et al., 2021). Global warming will dramatically reduce this mitigation effect, in particular by triggering widespread glacier down-wasting and thus the disappearance of the valuable water tower represented by the mountain cryosphere (Van Tiel et al, 2023). Recent heatwaves in the Alps already showed how the combination of a lack of precipitation during winter and warm temperatures during summer leads to unprecedented melt rates (Cremona et al., 2023, Avanzi et al., 2024). 

In this PhD project, we aim at investigating the implications of melting glaciers for downstream water supply during droughts. We will address this topic by blending field work, modeling, and data analysis. The PhD will in particular target two niches of research: the role of debris – a common feature for the vast majority of Alpine valley glaciers - as an accelerator/mitigator of glacier melt (Miles et al., 2020), and the impact of disappearing glacier melt in driving the escalation of downstream droughts (Van Tiel et al., 2021). We will do so by benefiting from operational tools developed by CIMA Research Foundation, such as the national cryospheric monitoring chain S3M Italy (Avanzi et al., 2023), and by promoting ad hoc field work in collaboration with other institutes, such as ARPA Valle d’Aosta. The PhD will also net itself into other initiatives, such as the IAHS working group on Droughts in Mountain Regions within the HELPING research decade: https://iahs.info/Initiatives/Topic-for-the-Next-IAHS-decade/helping-working-groups/droughts-in-mountain-regions/ 

The ideal candidate has proven expertise on the interactions between glacier processes and hydrology and is familiar with programming (Python), remote sensing, and field work at high elevations.

Link to the group or personal webpage

References

Theme 5: Seasonal drought impact characterization and prediction using Machine Learning approaches

References: A. Bracco, A. Provenzale antonello.provenzale@cnr.it, L. Rossi lauro.rossi@cimafoundation.org  

Funding: D.M. 630 dated 24.4.2024 (cofounded by Fondazione CIMA)

Abstract: Droughts are a major threat to several areas of the world, including the Mediterranean Basin and wide portions of the African continent. Droughts affects people's health and safety, and their impacts extend to water supply and quality, agriculture and food production, wildfires, ecosystem damage, and energy production. Given their societal relevance, it is crucial to develop a seasonal prediction system of droughts, to provide land managers, policy makers and civil protection authorities sufficient information to implement appropriate management responses. In this research activity we propose to devise a prototype system for the characterization and seasonal prediction (1-3 months) of drought danger and impacts. Given the complexity of drought insurgence and of the related impact chain, and the large amount of observational data from ground monitoring systems and satellite observations, the characterization and seasonal prediction of drought impacts will use a suite of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, based for example on Deep Neural Networks (DNN). The ML tools will be trained to identify drought insurgence danger and related drought impacts coupling the available observations with reanalysis data such as ERA5 and/or outputs of dynamical seasonal prediction systems such as those provided by ECMWF.

Theme 6: Assessing Multi-hazard and compound risk on infrastructure sectors in a probabilistic framework

References: Dr. Roberto Rudari (CIMA) roberto.rudari@cimafoundation.org, Dr. Eva Trasforini (CIMA) eva.trasforini@cimafoundation.org, Dr. Tatiana Ghizzoni (CIMA) tatiana.ghizzoni@cimafoundation.org

Funding: PROGRAMMA REGIONALE FONDO SOCIALE EUROPEO+ 2021-2027 PRIORITÀ 2 - ISTRUZIONE E FORMAZIONE - ESO 4.6 (OS-f) in collaboration and with the contribution of Fondazione CIMA, under condition of the project and funding approval

Abstract: This research aims at initiating a groundbreaking approach for risk assessment in the context of multi-hazard and compound risk. 

Standard approaches adopted in risk assessment estimate risk as a snapshot of specific hazard, exposure and vulnerability conditions. However, there is a clear feedback between the sequence of disasters materializing, the mitigation measures adopted to contrast risk and how the riskscape develops. The evolution of risk is dominated by a complex interconnection between risk perception, influenced by shocks, and reactions to these shocks, so that strong nonlinearities might determine very different risk conditions in future according to the time sequence of disasters and the way society decides to respond to them. 

Independence among hazard, exposure and vulnerability is therefore a common oversimplification in current risk assessment practice especially when critical infrastructures are considered. Exploring the correlations among the risk factors may be a key ingredient for a novel dynamical approach to modeling risk evolution over time. 

Within this context studying dynamic vulnerability is crucial in the context of multi hazard risk assessment to understand how various natural hazards can interact with each other, leading to compound effects. Especially in a probabilistic framework a new concept of vulnerability is the key for reflecting differences in impact and risk estimations when a proper probabilistic multi-hazard schema is developed.

This research should aim at developing a quantitative way of assessing vulnerability and its dynamics in a multi-hazard context and within a probabilistic framework for risk assessment with specific forcus on critical infrastructures.

Link to the group or personal Webpage 

References 

Theme 7: Exploring Multi-platform/Multi-sensor integrated approaches based on remote and proximal sensing techniques for the assessment of wildfire impacts on the safety of structures, infrastructures, and networks.

References: Dr. Umberto Morra di Cella (CIMA, ARPA VdA)umberto.morradicella@cimafoundation.org, Dr. Andrea Trucchia (CIMA) andrea.trucchia@cimafoundation.org, Dr. Paolo Fiorucci (CIMA) paolo.fiorucci@ciamfoundation.org 

Funding: PROGRAMMA REGIONALE FONDO SOCIALE EUROPEO+ 2021-2027 PRIORITÀ 2 - ISTRUZIONE E FORMAZIONE - ESO 4.6 (OS-f) in collaboration and with the contribution of Fondazione CIMA, under condition of the project and funding approval

Abstract: The direct and indirect effects of climate change (such as rising temperatures, summer droughts, redistribution of precipitation, intensification of extreme events, and biotic stress) impact the ecology and structural stability of forest populations and species, and more broadly, vegetative ecosystems (green infrastructure). In some cases, the capacity to provide ecosystem services is compromised, and the sensitivity of these vegetative formations to anthropogenic and natural pressures is progressively increasing (Dawson et al., 2011). In certain biomes, wildfires can play an important ecological role for the existence specific ecosystems, this is less common in managed forests, highly urbanized areas, or regions that were previously deforested. In forests in poor health, with a significant presence of deadwood, the ignition and spread of wildfires is facilitated (Pausas & Keeley, 2021). At the same time, wildfires lead to the loss of significant carbon reserves, limiting and delaying carbon sequestration capacity in the medium and long term, which is otherwise maximized during the juvenile phase of regeneration, when vegetative populations contribute substantially to carbon capture (Mack et al., 2021). In recent years, there has been a notable shift in disturbance regimes related to wildfires, specifically, a significant increase in high-magnitude fires (San-Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2021). In highly anthropogenic natural contexts, extreme intensity fires are often followed by a period of recovery and vegetative succession, at the end of which a vegetative community with lower biodiversity than the original is established, sometimes dominated by exotic species (Dickens & Allen, 2014). These recovery dynamics, in the context of climate change, can jeopardize the ecosystem services provided by natural systems and undermine the resilience mechanisms to climate changes, extreme weather events, and wildfires themselves (Kelly et al., 2020; Pejchar & Mooney, 2009). The cost of active firefighting interventions to protect human lives, infrastructure, and ecosystems can sometimes be significant, requiring substantial human resources.

In this doctoral project, we aim to define and develop methodologies to integrate remote sensing and proximal sensing techniques, based on multispectral satellite data and UAS (Unmanned Aerial System), and on-site monitoring data such as phenocam.

This objective is tied to the need to investigate forest structure, biomass, the degree of abandonment, and vegetation dynamics, as these are fundamental parameters for evaluating ecological stability and predicting susceptibility to future disturbances. We will focus on the phenomenon of wildfires and the analysis of vegetation dynamics before and after disturbances.

Another primary objective involves improving the performance of the PROPAGATOR forest fire propagation model (Trucchia et al., 2020), developed by the CIMA Foundation, related to a better characterization of vegetative fuel (biomass and structure) and its state in dynamic terms. Similarly, the same model will be used to simulate fire behavior and its impact on ecosystems in different scenarios of fuel evolution.

In this context, remote sensing data provide crucial information for both static characterization of ecosystems (structure and distribution) and the dynamic evolution of these. The ability to combine data from UAS or ground-based stations, satellite data, and multi-source data ensures high precision and reliability of these insights. Therefore, integration techniques for data with different radiometric and geometric properties will be explored, addressing issues related to various observation scales and the nature of the information.

The ideal candidate is familiar with vegetation dynamics, ecosystem processes, remote sensing techniques, image classification, programming (R, Python and Google Earth Engine), and fieldwork in natural and semi-natural environments.

Link to the group webpage

References