Research Project Proposals
Management & Security

Four grants are available:

(*) 1 grant cofunded by MUR/Department (DAFIST), 

(*) 1 grant cofunded by MUR/CIMA Foundation 

(*) 2 grants funded by CIMA Foundation 

The proposed themes are listed below. Candidates who have submitted research topics other than those listed below will not be admitted.

Theme 1: Towards a Systemic Assessment of the Future Impacts of Wildfires: Populations, Ecosystems and Economic Systems under Climate Change Scenarios

Proposer:   Paolo Fiorucci

Co-proposers: Antonello Provenzale, Roberto Rudari, Andrea Trucchia

Curriculum: Risk, Climate Change and Sustainable Development 

Description: In the context of intensifying climate change (Turco et al. 2014), wildfires are emerging as one of the main drivers of disruption to socio-ecological balances . Beyond their direct effects on vegetation and air quality, large wildfires can generate potentially devastating impacts on public health, ecosystem integrity, and the resilience of local economic systems, particularly in areas already marked by structural vulnerabilities (Naser et al. 2025; Papathoma-Köhle et al., 2022). Despite growing scientific attention to fire forecasting and risk modelling (Trucchia et al. 2022, 2023; Perello et al. 2025), there is still a lack of systemic and integrated analyses of the medium- and long-term impacts these events may have under future climate and socio-economic projections (Corning et al., 2024). The overall objective of this PhD project is to develop a multidisciplinary methodological framework to assess the potential impacts of wildfires on exposed populations, ecosystems (biodiversity loss, ecosystem services, regeneration), and key economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, tourism, infrastructure). The research will be structured around three main axes:

·       Development of integrated scenarios that combine climate projections (e.g., CMIP6 models and regional downscaling), demographic and socio-economic dynamics (e.g., Shared Socioeconomic Pathways – SSP), and land-use change models;

·       Mapping and quantifying territorial vulnerability and exposure;

·       Development of territorial case studies in high-impact contexts (e.g., the Mediterranean Basin), with the aim of validating analytical tools and supporting the development of evidence-based adaptation and risk management strategies.

The project will contribute to the definition of new tools for spatial planning and climate adaptation policies, providing scientific support for the development of integrated socio-ecological resilience strategies.

Link to the group or personal webpage

https://www.cimafoundation.org/programma/emerging-nexus-risk-resilience-green-deal-un-ocean-decade-actions/

https://www.cimafoundation.org/ambito/incendi-boschivi-e-conservazione-della-biodiversita-forestale/

https://www.cimafoundation.org/ambito/valutazione-del-rischio-e-dati-di-danno/

References

(Corning et al., 2024) Corning, S. , Krasovskiy, A. , Kiparisov, P. , San Pedro, J. , Viana, C.M., & Kraxner, F. (2024). Anticipating Future Risks of Climate-Driven Wildfires in Boreal Forests. Fire 7 (4) e144. 10.3390/fire7040144.

(Naser et al., 2025) Naser, M.Z., Kodur, V. Vulnerability of structures and infrastructure to wildfires: a perspective into assessment and mitigation strategies. Nat Hazards (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07168-5

(Papathoma-Köhle et al., 2022) Papathoma-Köhle, M., Schlögl, M., Garlichs, C. et al. A wildfire vulnerability index for buildings. Sci Rep 12, 6378 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10479-3

(Perello et al. 2025) Perello N., Trucchia A., D’Andrea M.,  Degli Esposti S., Fiorucci P., Gollini A., Negro D. An adaptable dead fuel moisture model for various fuel types and temporal scales tailored for wildfire danger assessment, Environmental Modelling & Software (2025) 183, 106254, ISSN 1364-8152, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106254.

(Trucchia et al., 2023) Trucchia A., Meschi G., Fiorucci P., Provenzale A., Tonini M., Pernice U. Wildfire hazard mapping in the eastern Mediterranean landscape. International Journal of Wildland Fire (2023) 32, 417-434.

(Trucchia et al., 2022) Trucchia A., Meschi G., Fiorucci P., Gollini A., Negro, D. Defining Wildfire Susceptibility Maps in Italy for Understanding Seasonal Wildfire Regimes at the National Level. Fire (2022) 5(1), 30. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire5010030 

(Turco et al., 2014) Turco, M., Llasat, M., Hardenberg, J, Provenzale, A. Climate change impacts on wildfires in a Mediterranean environment. Climatic Change (2014). 125. 1-12. 10.1007/s10584-014-1183-3. 

Theme 3: Linking Early Warning Systems to the Last Mile in contexts of high socio-economic vulnerability

Proposer(s):  Marina Morando (CIMA), Marta Giambelli (CIMA)

Description:If the goal of the Early Warning For All initiative is to have every person on Earth protected by an Early Warning System by 2027, then the most marginalized, rural and vulnerable people need to be included first, rather than last, when designing an effective, people-centred Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS)(Kelman & Fearnley, 2024). (Kelman & Fearnley, 2024). Through this PhD position we seek to investigate how an end-to-end EWS can be strengthened by assessing vulnerabilities and resilience to disasters at the subnational level (local/regional), within a broader legal, institutional, and operational framework. Such assessments can play a critical role in identifying and addressing the specific needs of marginalized populations, thereby helping to close the Early Warning and Early Action Gap.Building on existing methodologies, the research will focus on understanding localized vulnerabilities and documenting community-based practices for disaster preparedness and resilience. We propose two main challenges for this research: 1) a systematic analysis of the existing gaps across the four pillars of an EWS at the subnational level, 2) the development of recommendations and operational tools to be used in future EWS implementations in contexts of high socio-economic vulnerability.The proposed PhD position aims to enhance the effectiveness and relevance of Early Warning and Early Action systems for Last Mile communities, while also promoting the exchange of local best practices in disaster risk management (DRM). The research ultimately aspires to provide a meaningful and original contribution to the advancement of holistic DRM approaches.

Link to the group or personal webpage

https://www.cimafoundation.org/en/programme/risk-management-and-climate-change-adaptation-a-multidisciplinary-approach/

https://www.cimafoundation.org/en/department/planning-and-procedures/

References

Kelman, I., and C. Fearnley. 2024. The first mile of warnings means putting people first. Prevention Web. https://www.preventionweb.net/drr-community-voices/first-mile-warnings-means-putting-people-first. Accessed 11 Jan 2025.

Giambelli M., Meninno S., Deda M., Masi R., Gioia A., Ponte E., Massabò M., Vio R., Paniccia C., Renzulli S., 2023.“Establishing effective links between early warnings and early action: general criteria for floods”: an output of the programme “EU support to flood prevention and forest fires risk management in the Western Balkans and Turkey – IPA Floods and Fires”

Theme 5: Valuing Ecosystem Services in Climate-Induced Water Extremes: Bridging Nature and Loss & Damage Assessments

Proposer(s): Roberto Rudari, Edoardo Cremonese, Lauro Rossi, Eva Trasforini

Curriculum: Risk, Climate Change and Sustainable Development 

Description:

Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of water extremes, with severe consequences for terrestrial ecosystems and the services they provide. This research aims to assess how these climate-induced extremes disrupt the dynamic interactions between soil, vegetation, and atmosphere (SVA), and how these disruptions propagate into ecosystem services degradation and economic impacts, while informing loss and damage assessments. SVA processes are fundamental for maintaining ecosystem stability and resilience. Vegetation influences evapotranspiration and infiltration, soils regulate water retention and nutrient cycling, and atmospheric conditions control energy balance and moisture availability. Water extremes can disrupt these processes. Drought can reduce soil moisture and vegetation cover, altering evapotranspiration and increasing susceptibility to hazards such as forest fires, which further degrade soil structure, biodiversity, and vegetation resilience. Conversely, heavy rainfall can cause soil erosion, nutrient leaching, and vegetation loss, intensifying flood hazards and reducing ecosystem buffering capacity. These disruptions lead to the degradation of critical ecosystem services, including provisioning (water and food supply), regulating (carbon storage, erosion control), and cultural services (tourism, leisure). The proposed study seeks to answer the preliminary question: to what extent do water extremes intensify ecosystem vulnerability and services loss, and how can their impacts be quantified and integrated into loss and damage assessments? The project will focus on selected case study areas prone to hydroclimatic stress. It will combine climate data, earth observation applications, land-use mapping, physical indicators of ecosystem change, and ecosystem valuation tools such as InVEST, to measure ecosystem service loss. This will be done within a probabilistic framework that represents a scientific novelty in the fieldo of ecosystem services loss evaluation. To estimate the economic value of these losses, the study will apply selected valuation approaches such as avoided cost, replacement cost, and benefit-transfer methods. These will be tailored to the types of ecosystem services most affected by water extremes.

The research aims to contribute to integrated climate risk assessment frameworks by providing quantitative estimates of ecosystem services loss and its economic implications under climate stress. By translating ecosystem degradation into economic terms, the findings aim to support nature-integrated approaches to loss and damage assessments.

Link to the group or personal webpage

www.cimafoundation.org

References

Certini, G. (2023). The crucial interactions between climate and soil. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969722062684 

Ecosystem Valuation. Damage cost avoided, replacement cost, and substitute cost methods. https://www.ecosystemvaluation.org/cost_avoided.htm 

Guo, M., Ma, S., Wang, L.-J., & Lin, C. (2021). Impacts of future climate change and different management scenarios on water-related ecosystem services: A case study in the Jianghuai ecological economic zone, China. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X21003976 

Oishy, M. N. (2025). Unravelling the effects of climate change on the soil–plant–atmosphere interactions: A critical review. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2949919425000032 

Pisani, D., Pazienza, P., Perrino, E. V., Caporale, D., & De Lucia, C. (2021). The economic valuation of ecosystem services of biodiversity components in protected areas: A review for a framework of analysis for the Gargano National Park. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/21/11726 

U.S. Geological Survey. (2024). Impacts of changing climate and disturbance on forests and ecosystem services. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/ecosystems-land-change-science-program/science/impacts-changing-climate-and-disturbance 

UNEP. (2024). About Loss and damage.
https://www.unep.org/topics/climate-action/loss-and-damage/about-loss-and-damage 

Theme 7: Development of a meteorological WRF-LES + CFD coupled model chain AI-aware for the simulation of heat waves, windstorms and flash floods producing storms to increase the resilience of Mediterranean cities to extreme events

Proposers: Antonio Parodi, Massimiliano Burlando

Curriculum: Risk, Climate Change and Sustainable Development

Description: Mediterranean cities are increasingly exposed to extreme weather events such as heat waves, windstorms, and floods, which challenge urban safety, infrastructure, and sustainability (Guida et al. 2022). This research project proposes the development of an AI-aware coupled modeling framework that integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Lagasio et al. 2019), applied in Large Eddy Simulations (LES) mode(Fiori et al. 2017, Zonato et al. 2023), and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) (Ricci et al. 2022). The main goal is to enhance predictive capabilities and deepen the understanding of atmospheric dynamics at the urban scale, contributing to more resilient city planning and disaster risk reduction. The LES component enables fine-resolution modeling of turbulent atmospheric processes, while CFD simulations capture the microscale interaction between wind, heat, water, and urban morphology. Artificial intelligence will be employed for data assimilation, model optimization, and the identification of patterns across multi-source datasets, including satellite imagery, sensor networks, and historical climate records.

By focusing on Mediterranean urban environments, which exhibit a unique combination of dense populations, aging infrastructure, and climate vulnerability, the project aims to develop a next-generation modeling toolchain tailored to regional needs. Expected outcomes include: more accurate and timely forecasts of extreme events; high-resolution urban risk maps; and science-based recommendations for climate adaptation strategies. This research supports long-term urban resilience by providing decision-makers and urban planners with innovative tools to anticipate, assess, and mitigate the impacts of climate-induced hazards.

For more information please contact:

Dr Antonio Parodi (antonio.parodi@cimafoundation.org)

Link to the group or personal webpage:

References:

Fiori, E., Ferraris, L., Molini, L., Siccardi, F., Kranzlmueller, D., & Parodi, A. (2017). Triggering and evolution of a deep convective system in the Mediterranean Sea: Modelling and observations at a very fine scale. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 143(703), 927-941.https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2977

Guida C., C. Gargiulo, R. Papa, and G. Carpentieri (2022). Vulnerability and exposure of Mediterranean coastal cities o climate change-related phenomena. Environ. Sci. Proc. 21(1), 79. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/environsciproc2022021079

Lagasio M., F. Silvestro, L. Campo, and A. Parodi (2019). Predictive capability of a high-resolution hydrometeorological forecasting framework coupling WRF cycling 3DVAR and continuum. J. Hydrometeor., 20, 1307–1337. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0219.1

Ricci A., M. Burlando, M.P. Repetto, and B. Blocken (2022). Static downscaling of mesoscale wind conditions into an urban canopy layer by a CFD microscale model. Building and Environment 225, 109626. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109626

Zonato, A., Martilli, A., Santiago, J.L., Zardi, D. & Giovannini, L.(2023) On a new one-dimensional – turbulence closure for building-induced drag. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 149(754), 1674–1689. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4476